Analysis by Cray Brown
Photo Credit: CNN
As polling stations across the state close, Georgians wait anxiously to see who will come out on top of the deeply contested Senatorial election. Two years prior, in 2020, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff took both seats in the Senate by a narrow runoff, in a state once held as a bastion of Conservatism in the South. Some consider the state to have been turned by a rapidly increasing urban population, some by widespread anger at the Trump administration, some by fraud. However, Georgia fully becoming a blue state is, at best, extremely uncertain.
Some Americans, who increasingly suffer from the effects of inflation and disruptions in global trade, criticize what they see as fiscal irresponsibility on behalf of the Biden administration, leading to many again switching sides. Indeed, states that typically elect Democrats, such as Wisconsin and Nevada, are likely going to elect Republican Senators. As of this writing, Navada shows this lead, and Ron Johnson, R, currently leads with one point percentage over 50%. Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the race in Arizona is contested neck and neck. For Republicans, this is fantastic news, as with the four seats from Wisconsin and Nevada alone, they would seize control of the Senate.
However, the importance of Georgia extends beyond contemporary politics. It represents a deepening divide between Americans, drawn along uncompromising lines of race, class, locality, and religion. As of now, neither Walker or Warnock has the required 50% majority; with 98% of votes already in, they are matched neck and neck (Warnock with 49.4%, and Walker with 48.5%). The Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, has won 2.1% of the vote, an astounding turnout for the party. The race is likely to head to a runoff, as the poorer, rural areas that have still not turned in their votes vastly favor Walker. Should the race go to a runoff, it could go either way; the Libertarian and independent voters will be essential to the final call, as they currently hold enough votes to decide the race either way. The Libertarian Party has openly and officially denounced Biden for his “…Overarching theme of government control.”
The overarching idea is that while split on abortion, fiscal conservative is the main focus of Libertarians, regardless of the candidate. “The anybody but the current guy” mantra of getting someone new in has worked for candidates in the past. However, losing the libertarian vote for Oliver may have no effect in a runoff, as many may not vote at all. With the runoffs a month way, and the economy on everyone’s mind, time is not on the Democrat’s side, although its possible more skeletons in the closet may affect Walker’s performance amongst conservatives.
Overall, the race in Georgia, while not essential to Republican control of the Senate if they land Wisconsin and Nevada, is a good indicator of their overall popularity among swing states, and furthermore just how dissatisfied Americans are with the current administration.
Sources;
Wisconsin & Nevada; NYT Live Coverage
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=FreeformText
Georgia Senate; NYT Live Coverage
Libertarian Party’s Denunciation of Biden
https://www.lp.org/libertarian-party-reaction-to-biden-address/
Photo Credit: CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/herschel-walker-raphael-warnock-georgia-senate-results/index.html
